We work in an uncertain world, and our main goal in pursuing agility is to confront the unknown. ๐ถ๏ธ Pursuing predictability causes us to lay a veneer of fiction over the real world ๐, making it conform to a plan of what we would like to believe is true rather than what really is.
Predictability is an illusion ๐ช. Those things we call โplans/Forecastsโ? Theyโre just guesses with a nice-sounding wrapper ๐ around them.
๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ
Being forced ๐ค to produce predictability warps reality and lets the following scenarios happen:
1๏ธโฃ Predictable plans
Many organizations that somehow think that the future ๐ฎ can be predicted with accuracy and question a plan is viewed as โbeing negativeโ. And punishing ๐ฉโ๐ซ people because they didnโt guess correctly is a waste of time.
2๏ธโฃ Predictable productivity
Delivering value is important โผ๏ธ, not how many โunits of workโ (like story points) were delivered. What is better: driving 100 miles ๐๏ธ per hour in the wrong direction, or one mile per hour in the right๐ฏ?
To go faster, place smaller bets, run shorter experiments, and evaluate where you are more frequently.
3๏ธโฃ Predictable careers
It may seem scary that we donโt know where we are headed ๐งโ๐ฆฏ. So how do we prepare ourselves for what lies ahead? By cultivating flexibility ๐คธ, adaptability, and the ability to learn quickly ๐ซ. Just as with Scrum, we succeed personally by trying new approaches ๐ and evaluating the results, in measured experiments.
4๏ธโฃ Predictable agile transformation
Organizations seem to believe ๐ง that they can predictively plan how they are going to โbecome agileโ. "Agile" is not a tool ๐ง, that can be โinstalledโ or โrolled outโ. It is a way of thinking and acting that involves continually ๐๏ธ seeking better results and better outcomes. We cannot plan how this is going to proceed!
#scrum #predictability #agileTransformation